Tuesday, March 24, 2026

Into My Own Parade

2020
1. Education (from the Small Axe series)
2. What She Said: The Art of Pauline Kael
3. Recorder: The Marion Stokes Project
4. Never Rarely Sometimes Always
5. The Last Dance
6. Nomadland
7. The Nest
8. Portrait of a Lady on Fire
9. I’m Thinking of Ending Things
10. Little Women

2021
1. The Velvet Underground
2. Kurt Vonnegut: Unstuck in Time
3. Red Rocket
4. Zola
5. The Power of the Dog
6. Malcolm & Marie
7. Licorice Pizza
8. Audrey
9. Don't Look Up
10. Spencer

2022
1. Turn Every Page: The Adventures of Robert Caro and Robert Gottlieb
2. Ice-Breaker: The '72 Summit Series
3. The Worst Person in the World
4. The Banshees of Inisherin
5. She Said
6. TÁR
7. EO
8. It Ain't Over
9. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
10. The Quiet Girl


2023
1. Showing Up
2. Past Lives
3. American Fiction
4. The Zone of Interest
5. Anatomy of a Fall
6. The Teachers’ Lounge
7. Air
8. You Hurt My Feelings
9. Oppenheimer
10. Leave the World Behind

2024
1. A Complete Unknown
2. Every Little Thing
3. Kinds of Kindness
4. Evil Does Not Exist
5. Nickel Boys
6. The Apprentice
7. The Brutalist
8. Eno
9. September 5
10. A Real Pain

Mid-Decade Top Ten
1. Velvet Underground
2. A Complete Unknown
3. Turn Every Page: The Adventures of Robert Caro and Robert Gottlieb
4. The Worst Person in the World
5. What She Said: The Art of Pauline Kael
6. Showing Up
7. Education (from the Small Axe series)
8. Kinds of Kindness
9. American Fiction
10. Fargo/Better Call Saul/Homecoming

Four Top 10s submitted to the annual ILX year-end film poll, plus a mid-decade Top 10, a stand-in for 2025, a year where I doubt I could generate a Top 3. (The ILX polls run on a very strange timeline that lingers from COVID; the results of the 2024 poll haven’t yet been posted, and voting for 2025 won’t happen for months.) I had to tweak a couple of the lists; I only submitted a Top 8 in 2020 (explanation obvious), and I ended up voting for The Zone of Interest in both 2023 and 2024—that strange timeline again—so I replaced it with The Apprentice on the later list.

I don’t think it’s been a great decade so far. The biggest story for me has been the aversion I’ve developed to many of the directors who made my favourite films from the ‘90s forward: Scorsese, the two Andersons, the Coens (one Coen now), Sofia Coppola (based on everything since The Bling Ring), Kelly Reichardt (based on her last two), Noah Baumbach (based on his most recent), etc., etc. Wes Anderson is the worst of them by far. The internet, where many of their films are immediately embraced as masterpieces, doesn’t help (and, if I’m honest, predisposes me to a degree to dislike everything they do now—but I continue to believe that a legitimately good film will break through the din regardless). On those rare occasions when someone does write something negative, like Greil Marcus on One Battle After Another—"it’s not a statement for our times (“An Antifascist Movie at a Fascist Moment,” as Michelle Goldberg’s New York Times piece was headlined), but a self-righteous comic strip that moves fast”—I want to stand up and cheer.

My top two mirror two of my favourite films from the century’s first decade: Todd Haynes’ Velvet Underground pairs up with Ric Burns’ Andy Warhol: A Documentary Film, while James Mangold’s A Complete Unknown fictionalizes Scorsese’s No Direction Home (I haven’t kept up with everything, but I continue to take an interest in Scorsese the documentarian). So I’m still finding comfort, pleasure, and inexhaustible surprise and mystery in the shadows cast by narrow, long-gone windows in time. To quote myself (writing about John Coltrane a few years ago) quoting Tommy Lee Jones in No Country for Old Men, they’re a rebuke to the dismal tide of today.

In stark contrast to the century’s second decade, when I was finally catching up will all the foundational prestige television shows from the ‘00s—Mad Men, The Sopranos, Breaking Bad—and staying current with many others I loved, television hasn’t meant as much to me this decade either. Succession? Well done, as far as it goes, but not a great deal of scope, to put it mildly. (Rest of the world responds: “Fuck off.”) The first season of Severance felt like a classic at times, then they lost their way. Again, the internet doesn’t help: if someone loves Severance, they’re not necessarily open to suggestions of imperfection. Anyway, I wanted to include some TV, so I’ve cheated a bit (above and beyond the cheating of wanting to include some TV): the three series I’ve listed all started in the ‘10s (Fargo as early as 2014) and finished up this decade. If Mr. Robot had delayed its final episode (Dec. 22, 2019) a couple of weeks, I probably would have snuck that in too. My television-viewing habits have become just like my movie-viewing habits used to be (but aren’t so much anymore, since leaving Toronto and all its rep theatres): instead of seeking out new stuff—the one thing you’re never short of is recommendations from friends—I watch the same series over and over.

Maybe I’ll have a list for 2025 at some point. I'm still waiting for someone to make a film that gets inside the dismal tide as definitively as all those great American films from the ‘70s did; maybe some has and I missed it. I found glimmers of that scattered through many of the films listed above.

Monday, March 23, 2026

Everything Everywhere All at Once

And so ends the great migration of 2026: 106 pieces moved over from my Tripod homepage to here, pieces dating back to the late-'90s and the still-relatively-new advent of homepages and blogs. (I still have to double-check dates on a few of them.) The Tripod page is still up, but--what precipated all this in the first place--I can only access it about half the time. As I recently posted on Facebook, I'm amazed that it's still functioning at all (and that I was able to get some tech support, even though it didn't take).

I still have four huge corners of the page to move over: 1) a record inventory where I logged and wrote about the ~3,500 albums then in my collection; 2) almost-daily posting I did during the 2008 presidential election; 3) a countdown of my 100 favourite songs on Facebook (alongside Scott Woods); and 4) a follow-up countdown of my 50 favourite movies, also on Facebook and joined by Jeff Pike and the late Steven Rubio. I don't know how many words those four projects entailed, but likely enough for a book; they'll take some time.

Meanwhile, I'll be filling in some gaps here and there--things that were linked to on the Tripod site--and I've arranged for an upcoming Zoom interview with Scott about his varied and mysterious creative work as DJ Shoe North over the years.

To start: five different WordPress sites from the past few years, two of which were set up to promote existing books, and two which eventually led to published books themselves.

1. Interrupting My Train of Thought: Scott set this up for a collection of writing I published in 2014.

2. Managing the Decay: Again working with Scott--and sparked, I think, by what I tried with the 2008 election--we set up a blog to cover the 2012 election. Kind of a forgotten one, befitting the runaway charisma of the Romney/Ryan ticket, but, I believe, crucial in paving the way for the nightmare of 2016.

3. You Should've Heard Just What I Seen: In advance of the final Mad Men episode in 2015, Scott and I were looking for a place to speculate on what song the series would go out on. We then expanded the idea into a running blog on pop music as used in movies and TVs; eventually, I took all of my entries and put out a book of the same name.

4. Unshackled; The Dustbin of Donald Trump: set up by Scott to promote our book about the cultural and political origins of Trump. Who, as soon as he lost the 2016 election, would be little more than a bizarre footnote in the political history of America (hence the "dustbin" idea).

5. We Don't Wanna Know: a first draft of what turned out to be a book of the same name wherein I wrote about my favourite music videos.

I did contemplate moving the Tripod page to WordPress, but, you know, I'm trying to apply the rules of the stock market to blogging and taking great care to diversify.

Wednesday, Better Still (2024)

The Internet Is Not a Good Place to Argue with People, Part 53. Actually, this isn’t really about an argument, so call it The Internet Is Not a Good Place to Do Anything, Part 1. Except maybe buy stuff; I’m on there buying stuff all the time.

I have a friend who, every time we get together (only three or four times a year since I left Toronto), gives me a mix-CD. I used to burn CDs all the time for myself, and if I ever get ambitious, I could spend a whole summer burning all the unheard music I still keep on my hard drive from when I went on a downloading binge 20 years ago. I’ll likely die before I ever do--for now, a few days in the car with Steve’s mix-CDs each year is enough.

One of the two he gave me a few weeks ago had the Bobby Fuller Four’s “Let Her Dance,” one of their follow-ups to “I Fought the Law.” It’s an incredible song, one of my mid-‘60s favourites. Don’t think I’ve ever put it on a Top 100, which is an oversight--gives you a good idea of what Buddy Holly might have been doing in 1965 had he lived. (Just found out it’s used in Wes Anderson’s The Fantastic Mr. Fox, which I now may make an effort to see.) Not sure if Steve thought this would be a song I didn’t already have--I do, on a Rhino compilation--or if he just thought it fit in well with the other songs he included. It was followed by a good cover of Dylan’s “She Belongs to Me” by Augie Myers that I’d never heard.

In one of those intuitive connections that sometimes seize you out of the blue, I immediately thought of the Kamala Harris campaign; it was a song that somehow, to me, seemed to speak to the runaway excitement that had taken hold of one side in the election the past week or two. I started thinking of the kind of ad you could create if you had Harris’s cooperation and legal rights to the song. I then looked up the phone number of the White House and...not true; the fantasy stopped there. But I did think of the one ad Harris had already done (pre-Walz), the one that uses Beyonce’s “Freedom,” and how maybe, with the help of my friend Scott, we could use images from that one and swap out Beyonce for Bobby Fuller.

I liked the original ad, and I certainly get the immense cultural reach of Beyonce--who, seemingly hours after Biden stepped aside, had handed the song to Harris to use as her campaign theme. If you want to make a clean break from Biden (symbolically clean; the handover of course had to be handled gingerly by Harris), and you want to get the attention of younger voters, the song was a good choice for the first ad.

But I’m approaching this as a music guy, and a more detailed account of my reaction went something like this: “Good ad, does what it’s supposed to do, but I wonder what it would feel like if you used a better song.” Because “Freedom” is not, to put it charitably, very good; it’s bombastic, didactic, like having somebody stand there at a blackboard and announce “Today, class, we’re going to talk about freedom.” I know the ad wasn’t meant for a retired, 62-year-old Canadian grade-school teacher, and that’s why I’m responding to it two different ways: objectively, as to how well it does what it’s supposed to do, but also subjectively, which in my case means aesthetically. And if there’s one thing I’ve paid a great deal of attention to the past few decades, it’s the melding of pop music to images in a variety of contexts: in films and on TV (subject of a book I published in 2020), in music videos (subject of a book I expect to publish later this year), in commercials, and even in political ads--I loved the Bernie Sanders ad in 2016 that used Simon & Garfunkel’s “America.” I think, perhaps arrogantly, that I actually have a good feel for that sort of thing.

So that’s what Scott did: took the original ad, removed Beyonce and Harris’s voiceover (also images of Trump), replaced them with “Let Her Dance,” but otherwise left it mostly untouched. It was a heartfelt expression of our own runaway enthusiasm for the switchover from Biden, and, for me, it perfectly captured the moment.

The next thing I did was, based on 15 years that should have told every instinct I have otherwise, absolutely stupid: I posted the video in the dedicated political thread on the same message board that I’ve whined about before. I wanted to share it--think I posted within an hour of Scott finishing up--and was a little hesitant about Facebook because of copyright. I didn’t equivocate or hedge; it was obvious I was happy with what we’d done.

As much as it nauseates me to go back to the thread to check details, I will. The first response came five minutes after I posted. If the person actually watched the video, that’s less than four minutes after I posted--a lot of thought there, clearly. The post came from a longtime (going back to the board’s inception, I believe) poster, the reverence for whom completely mystifies me--most of the time, he’s like a human conduit for other people’s tweets, I think because, to paraphrase Frances McDormand in Fargo, he wants to let us know how, you know, connected he is. His complaint was that I replaced a song by a Black pop icon and Harris supporter with the work of “an old dead white guy.” (Probably just “dead white guy” would have sufficed--hard to be old and dead at the same time.)

Without dwelling too much on it, three quick points:

1) This is not an actual ad; it’s a DIY show of support from a couple of guys in Canada, guaranteed to be seen by a few dozen people, maybe. Cue Allen Iverson: we’re not talking about the game, we’re talking about practice.

2) The Pavlovian regurgitation of a phrase like “old dead white guy." I can't tell you how much bottomless contempt I have for clichés. (Good teacher that I am, I'll assign my contempt to the clichés, rather than to the people who recycle them. Focus on the behaviour, not the student: "You're not an idiot, you're just behaving like one.")

3) Again, we’re approaching the ad from a musical standpoint above all else. Beyonce’s “Freedom,” as a piece of music, is the exact antithesis of what it purports to be about: “Let Her Dance,” a work of lightness and grace and beauty, is the thing itself. It all makes me think of the Mad Men episode where Martin Luther King Jr. was assassinated. The assassination--news of the assassination (relayed by Paul Newman)--happened early in the episode, I think, when Don and some others were attending an awards ceremony. At the end, a signature Mad Men ritual by that point, Matthew Weiner had to choose exactly the right piece of music--and I mean exactly, as this was truly one of the monumental events of the decade. The obvious choice for the spring of 1968, a year dominated on the pop charts by soul from Atlantic, Stax, Motown, and elsewhere, would have been Aretha, the Temptations, Sly, Stevie Wonder, or Otis Redding; “(Sittin’ on) the Dock of the Bay,” right in the middle of a chart run that saw it  spend four weeks at #1 when King was killed, would have been made to order every which way, one fallen African American icon to commemorate the life of another. Weiner did something completely counterintuitive, though: he went back to the previous #1, Paul Mauriat’s “Love Is Blue,” a MOR confection that, other than historical proximity, would seem to have about as much to do with MLK’s death as Gomer Pyle, 1968’s #2 TV show after Laugh-In. But it worked brilliantly--you felt the full weight of the event in a way above and beyond what “(Sittin’ on) the Dock of the Bay”--too familiar, too canonical, too peaceful-- would have provided. It’s like the old saying about being able to hold two contradictory thoughts in your mind at once. That’s a lot to process in four minutes--much easier just to spew rote nonsense that you know will get on-the-marks and approving thumbs from your audience.

I dwelled a little longer than intended.

There were another 10 or so posts in the next couple of hours, all of them, I think, expressing varying degrees of approbation. How much each post bothered me depended mostly on who was doing the posting; a couple of the comments were from posters I like, so those disappointed me the most. One complaint wildly misread the song choice, suggesting that Harris didn’t need anyone’s permission to run for president. God, no: as I wrote on Facebook (where I did, a few days later, post the video), “let her dance” = get out of her way, with no implication whatsoever of permission being granted. (Go forth, Kamala: two guys from Canada are okay with you running.) I was hoping that maybe one or two people would post something nice--surely somebody liked what we’d done, right?--but either nobody felt that way or, my guess, anybody who did was reluctant to find themselves on the wrong side of someone else’s pile-on. I’ve been in that situation myself as an onlooker, many times--better just to absent yourself.

There were a couple more posts referring to the “Let Her Dance” clip in the next week or two. The first, I think, was meant to push a button and fish me into defending it all over again; I responded, but instead of revisiting the “Let Her Dance” video, it gave me a chance to post a second one, which Scott and I made (again, thanks to Scott’s technical expertise; I’m more...the conceptual end of things) right after the Walz VP pick. No complaints this time: two old white guys celebrating an old white guy with music made by old (dead, even) white guys landed us squarely on the right side of a rose is a rose is a rose. (Not that that’s always an easy line to identify. Just before our handiwork, there was a video all over the internet of Harris leaving a record store with albums by Charles Mingus, Roy Ayers, and Louis Armstrong and Ella Fitzgerald that she’d just purchased; the video became a meme where her albums were replaced by work from the Pixies, Guided by Voices, Pavement, and others. I didn’t see any complaints there; that was acceptable.)

In the end, I actually did try to get the videos to the Harris campaign; I sent a short message with YouTube links for both (I uploaded them using an unlisted setting; I’ve since made them public) via the contact page on the VP’s website. I had to use a fake Zip Code--you aren’t able to enter a Canadian postal code. If Harris loses, her failure to hire Scott and me to head her YouTube Outreach Division will probably be the difference.

All in One Place (2023)

In the middle of all these dramas on social media (cf. previous two posts), I spent the last 15 months working on a book about Don McLean’s “American Pie.” Finally finished and got it uploaded a couple of weeks ago:

Happy for a While: "American Pie," 1972, and the Awkward, Confusing Now

That will take you to the Kindle version; there’s a button you can click on that page for a paperback.

I did a Zoom call the other night with Scott Woods and Chuck Eddy (who wrote the foreword), mostly about the book but touching on various other things, too:

Steve Pick, who’s part of the Christgau-inspired Expert Witness group on Facebook, wrote a really nice (and wholly unexpected) review of Happy for a While on his Substack blog:

A review from Jeff Pike, who's always been really supportive of whatever I'm up to:

An interview with Richard Crouse, ditto:

Two more Zooms: one, a two-parter, with Salon’s Chris Molanphy and Scott Woods, the second with Rolling Stone’s Rob Sheffield:

There will also be, if things fall into place, a couple of events in St. Marys; I’ll add any links as they happen. Promoting a self-published book continues to be an ordeal; promoting one post-pandemic and after having moved from Toronto to a small town of 6,000 people, even more so.

I’m looking forward to what Scott comes up with from our Zoom call, but I wanted to pre-emptively address something we spent some time on that has been gnawing at me a bit: the age-old issue of subjectivity vs. objectivity. I’ve written about this often, especially when posting movie and music lists here and there. The point I’ve always tried to make: it’s almost always a meaningless distinction. If I say that such-and-a-such is one of my 25 favourite films ever, then the implication is also that I think it’s one of the 25 best; the fact that I like it better than all the other films that aren’t on my list also implies I think it’s a better film--how could it not? Similarly, the idea of listing a film because I think it’s historically important or technically audacious or whatever--but also knowing it’s not a film I personally love--that has never made sense to me. Basically, favourite = best = favourite.

I may have backed myself into a corner (as I reconstruct everything in my mind) during the Zoom call at one point, seemingly supporting the view that subjective and objective are two wholly different things, so let me clarify. I have, especially the last decade or so--maybe beginning with a collaborative Facebook countdown of my favourite movies I did with Steven Rubio and Jeff Pike in 2010—begun to acknowledge instances where strong undercurrents of nostalgia mess with that equation. There were a few films I included in my list of 50 favourites on that countdown--To Sir with Love and The Paper ChaseThe Heartbreak Kid and North Dallas Forty--that in no way would I ever try to make a case that “this is one of the 50 greatest films ever made.” I’m very aware that I saw each of those films at a very impressionable time in my life, that they connected powerfully to whatever I was feeling at the time, and that those connections have stayed strong over the years. I still get far more wrapped up in them emotionally than, I don’t know, 2001: A Space Odyssey, or La Règle du jeu, or Vertigo, or hundreds and hundreds of other films I know are widely viewed as the very peak of cinematic artistic achievement. North Dallas Forty, my regard for which is inextricably linked to Ball Four and my high school basketball coach, is not that. And I believe that’s worth acknowledging. (In the Zoom call, I think it might have been mention of the Addrisi Brothers’ “We’ve Got to Get It On Again” that triggered this detour. Not the most applicable example for me--definitely underneath that umbrella of nostalgia, but a song I merely like, rather than love--which would be more along the lines of “A Horse with No Name,” maybe, or one of Chicago’s early hits.)

Moving onto a matter completely unrelated, I caught a panel on CBC radio yesterday discussing the new Martha Stewart Sports Illustrated cover. Historically the domain of 20-something supermodels and exceptionally photogenic female athletes (Serena Williams, Anna Kournikova), the 81-year-old Stewart is by far their oldest cover model yet.

I tuned in midway, but the basic thrust seemed to be “Nice gesture, thanks for trying, but who cares?” Venerable old print media such as Sports Illustrated is so far below the radar these days, this amounts to little more than a tree-falling-in-the-forest situation.

My first reaction was “Well, I know about the Martha Stewart cover, and I’m not exactly plugged into the Twitter/TMZ universe (if those references are out of date, that merely underscores my point), so it must be getting some attention,” but as I thought about how little I keep up with Sports Illustrated these days, it’s hard to argue. I was a faithful subscriber through the second half of the ‘70s, and I continued, through the ‘80s and ‘90s, to collect whatever baseball covers I could at library and yard sales. (I have almost every baseball cover for a period spanning four decades.) There was a time when SI wasn’t just a great sports magazine, it was a bellwether for the culture at large. I still remember their Joe Gilliam cover from 1974: “Pittsburgh’s Black Quarterback” it provocatively declared, immediately making you confront the insanity of that even being something to call attention to. I bet they lost a few hundred subscribers with that issue. I still kept up a little with the online edition as recently as ten years ago--can’t remember his name, but there was a guy who did monthly MVP and Cy Young rundowns I liked to read--but I don’t even do that anymore. It’s not as dead as Spin or George or Collier’s, but its centrality to the sports world would seem to reside in the distant past.

Having relegated Sports Illustrated to the dustbin of history--with a certain amount of detectable pleasure, I might add--you know what was next on the agenda? A 10- or 15-minute segment on the new Fast & Furious movie, where the three hosts enthusiastically assured listeners that the series survives for a reason, even invoking the term “folkloric” at one point (while simultaneously acknowledging that, like previous installments, it mostly consists of explosions and crashes).

I suddenly wanted to search out the latest issue of Sports Illustrated. Because whatever they’re doing these days, I’m quite sure it’s of more value than the new Fast & Furious film.

Wake Up, You Sleepyhead (2023)

The internet is not a good place to argue with people, Part 37. That’s what this page is going to be from now on. I used to post my year-end music and movie lists here, and not much else, but I seem to have stopped doing those--music lists for sure are finished; I may go back to movies eventually. Surreal internet arguments, that’s my new passion in life.

Last time, the Isley Brothers. After that, three big baseball arguments I didn’t write about here:

1) whether or not Justin Verlander should have been pulled early in Game 1 of last year’s WS;

2) whether or not the Astros’ combined no-hitter in Game 4 was something to get excited about;

3) a story I related about a friend getting Willie Mays’ autograph at a card show.

If winning or losing an argument is scored by how many people agree with you, I lost all three.

A few days ago, it was the death of Cindy Williams. “Really? What was the argument about—whether she actually died or not? Did someone say she’s hiding out somewhere with Elvis and Jimmy Hoffa? There doesn’t seem to be a lot to argue about there.” I agree. Once this one got underway, “What exactly is it we’re arguing about here?” was a question that kept popping into my head.

Same message board as before, where there’s a yearly obituary thread for all the celebrity deaths that fill the news during the course of a year. After an initial post relating news of the death, with a link to a newspaper or wire-service account, there may or may not be a handful of follow-up posts, depending upon how prominent the deceased is; if it’s someone like Prince or Jean-Luc Godard, the discussion quickly moves over to an already existing thread devoted to that person. This is not a new phenomenon, but one that’s heightened considerably by social media: it’s sobering, once you reach a certain age (I’m 61), how many people you grew up watching or listening to start dying.

With Cindy Williams, after a couple of one-word reactions, someone posted an American Graffiti clip  (Laurie and Steve dancing to “Smoke Gets in Your Eyes” at their homecoming dance). I posted that it was a great scene, as was a scene she shared with Harrison Ford. A few minutes later, I posted that I’d completely forgotten The Conversation, and how great she was in an elevator scene with Gene Hackman. No problems so far. After which, I posted for a third time, and we’re off to the races:

I understand the nostalgia for Laverne & Shirley, I've got no shortage of equivalents in my own life, but I think it's too bad she got sidetracked. I look at The Conversation and American Graffiti, and I wonder if--to name another actress starting out around the same time--she could have gone on to have a career like Sissy Spacek's.

As I wrote that up, I thought I was paying her the ultimate tribute: that she became famous for a popular TV show, and that that was fine--and that I understood that, and shared in the same kind of nostalgia for certain things in my own life--but that I wondered if she could have had a movie career as successful as Sissy Spacek’s (and, implicitly, that I’d already decided she could have, based on those two films--two of my favourite ever, I’ll mention).

Why am I translating something that doesn’t really need translation? Again, good question.

A few more posts, and then someone (Person A, we’ll say) says that 1) Lavern & Shirley had more impact than the theoretical movie career I’m imagining for Cindy Williams, and that 2) Lavern & Shirley was accessible and funny, not like some falsely prestigious movie career. That, and “fuiud”--fuck you if you disagree, in internet-speak. But an LOL was attached, and as long as you include an LOL on social media, you can say almost anything and expect the other person not to take offense.

Okay. In response to that, I tried to paraphrase my original post like I did above, and also added that “I think it's a stretch to say (Laverne & Shirley) had any impact beyond that in the sense of influencing television history or anything, which many shows from that era did.” Which I’ll stand by. It was a very popular show, but it wasn’t The Mary Tyler Moore Show, it wasn’t All in the Family, it wasn’t Julia with Diahann Carroll. Those shows inarguably changed television. Laverne & Shirley was part of a general retreat from the topicality of early ‘70s TV. I’m not saying it was Three’s Company, but--like the show it spun off from, Happy Days--it was part of a return to the friendly, My Three Sons-type shows of an earlier era.

The next post (Person B)--people sure do love to take up other people’s disagreements on this message board--said somebody’s nostalgia didn’t need to line up with my own idea of importance, although, presumably, my idea of importance needed to line up with somebody’s else’s nostalgia. Besides which, I thought I’d made it clear I understood and shared in feelings of nostalgia.

I again--starting to get exasperated at this point--tried to make it clear that I was praising Cindy Williams, adding that she was trapped inside of a system then that drew up a clear wall between success on TV and a movie career. I don’t begrudge whatever success Laverne & Shirley or Cindy Williams had, and if I say it sidetracked her from the movie career I think she could have had, I’m criticizing the this-or-that system that was in place at the time, not trying to wish the show into non-existence.

I’m trying to think of a parallel example and how I’d react...Chris Elliott came up on the message board today, in connection with Saturday Night Live. I think Chris Elliott’s one of the funniest guys of the past 50 years. I couldn’t get enough of him in the early days of Letterman: Conspiracy Guy was my favourite, where he’d jump out of the crowd and start badgering Letterman: “What about Connie Chung and the secret documents?!” He was great on the couch with Letterman too, and there were other appearances here and there. I watched a few episodes of Get a Life, his one chance at a hit show, and, as best as I can remember, it was interesting but kind of missed the mark. If I’m still here when Chris Elliott dies, and somebody on social media posts “He was so funny; too bad he was never given an adequate chance to show that,” I guarantee I won’t take great offense that the person is stepping on Chris Elliott and on my memories of him by imagining the career he could have had instead of the scattershot one he did. My reaction will be, “Glad you said that.”

Anyway, that wasn’t the problem, I was told (by Person B); it was that I needed to let Person A mourn and just keep quiet. (Another way to say “Fuck you if you disagree,” I think.) Person A then came on to re-explain herself, reinforcing the idea that I was stuck on some fictitious, highbrow movie career that somehow trivialized what Cindy Williams actually accomplished.

Highbrow? American Graffiti? It’s a good thing I didn’t say she could have gone on to star in Jeanne Dielman, 23 quai du Commerce, 1080 Bruxelles.

I had headed out to a movie, so I didn’t see that post for three hours. When I got home and read it, I responded quickly, never a good idea, beginning with “I think you’re being ridiculous,” followed by more clarifications and paraphrasing.

Person C had now entered the fray, but things seemed to settle down, and I was even able to dig up an interview where Cindy Williams seemed to be saying exactly what I’d been saying all along--that she wished she’d gotten the chance to play more dramatic roles, but that producers never gave her a chance because of Laverne & Shirley. Did that bring everything to a close? Of course not: a fourth person jumped in later that night to say that A, B, and C were “on the mark” about how misguided my posting has been. And then a fifth person. (Happily, and surprisingly, there was one poster who seemed to understand what I’d been trying to say--that doesn’t happen very often anymore.)

Cut to, what, day three of this? Person A returned to say that the problem was my condescending “you’re being ridiculous” more than anything I was saying about Cindy Williams. So I apologized for that, but did mention the “fuiud.” No response to that. Translation: “fuck you” + LOL = no big deal, “you’re being ridiculous” = mean and condescending.

I again assured Person A that I was a very nostalgic person, and also again expressed puzzlement over the American Graffiti = highbrow snobbishness formulation. And that was the end of it.

The worst thing about all this--unlike the Isley Brothers argument, where I’ve never had a whole lot of respect for the three people I’d been doing most of the arguing with--is that I’ve always liked Person A and Person B here; I’ve felt some kinship with them in the past over subjects ranging from Friday Night Lights to Husker Du to diabetes to the film Zodiac to teaching. No, that’s not the worst thing: the worst thing is that they’re both female, and getting into arguments with females on social media where the perception is that you’re stepping on their nostalgia and grief is, to haul in some more internet-speak, “never a good look.”

As I reran everything in my mind later, I entertained the idea of starting a “Long Ago and Oh So Far Away: the Value of Nostalgia” thread. It’s a topic that greatly interests me. For starters, I’ve been working on a book the past year-plus that’s about a few things, but you could say that it’s primarily about my deep nostalgia for a certain year and a small number of songs from that year. I often find myself overwhelmed with nostalgia for various long-gone fragments of my life. When Robert Crumb thumbs through an old school yearbook in Crumb, remembering everyone he had crushes on at the time, he sighs and says, “Jesus, where are they now?” That might be my single favourite line in any movie ever.

My internet friend Steven--we’ve never met, but we once joined up for a shared project on Facebook, and we’ve been doing semi-regular movie-related Zoom calls the past year--often dismisses nostalgia as some- thing pernicious. I’ve joked about this with him--he’ll often write about his student days at Berkeley, or his favourite concerts ever, or will post some random Jefferson Airplane song for no special reason--saying that I think he’s a very nostalgic person whose complaining is a way of masking that. But I think I get his basic point: wanting to go back to some moment in time that might have been great for you but was undoubtedly miserable for lots of different groups of people who weren’t as lucky as you is selfish and deluded. That, and also that he keeps up enough that there’s no shortage of great new movies and new music to keep him happy today. The world moves on. I get that.

When I talk about my own nostalgia for the things I hang on to decades later--the Carpenters, Katherine Ross and Jan Smithers and all my movie/TV crushes, Mark Fidrych, Toronto’s Yonge St. when I grew up 40 miles away--I try to maintain some perspective about what has real lasting value to the world and what exists primarily in my mind. All the American movies from the late ‘60s and early ‘70s that became such a cornerstone of my lifelong interest in film, for instance--that led me to take a degree in film at university, what I always single out as the dumbest decision I ever made--I think I’m pretty clear on which ones were objectively great and which ones belong to me. The Godfather, Nashville, Taxi Driver, All the President’s Men, those are great films; no rationalizations required. The Paper Chase, on the other hand--or To Sir with Love, or The Heartbreak Kid, or The Sterile Cuckoo, and you can probably even add The Graduate to the list these days--I’m well aware of their limitations. The Paper Chase is far from a great film; it might not even be a good one. But with university on the horizon, it spoke to whatever fantasy version of that I had already concocted for myself, which involved much more than Lindsay Wagner--John Houseman’s imperious, legendary professor was just as much a part of it. (When I did get to the University of Toronto a few years later, though, Marshall McLuhan was on leave, and would die soon after, and I never even tried to get into one of Northrop Frye’s courses. So I never really got to fulfill the John Houseman end of my fantasy. And, good guess, not the Lindsay Wagner part, either.)

I’ve also found with nostalgia, timing is everything. What means the world to me means nothing to someone five years older than me, and ditto in the other direction. When Laverne & Shirley debuted in January of 1976, I was in grade 10--that just wasn’t something I was going to form any long-term attachment to. I think I did watch the show for a year or two, but my friends and I were much more liable to compare notes on the previous night’s Fernwood 2 Night or Gong Show.

So what’s the point of all this? Essentially, that I’m a very nostalgic person who thinks about nostalgia, and my relation to it, all the time. It’s bizarre when you get characterized in a way that’s 100% opposite to how you actually are--that’s another hallmark of social media. A couple of months earlier on this message board, on the baseball sub-board, someone described me as this guy who was hopelessly teary-eyed over the days when Reggie Jackson hit six home runs a game and starting pitchers were expected to stay out there until they threw 300 pitches, incapable of keeping up with a game that has moved on...it was two people, actually, and I’m collapsing (and exaggerating--slightly) a few posts into one there. Or this notion of me as emblematic of highbrow film snobbishness. That one killed me. I thought of how some of the regular film posters on this message board would react to that, where I’m more or less viewed as this guy trapped in the Godfather/Taxi Driver moment, oblivious to the subtleties of Akerman and Tarkovsky and Kiarostami, incapable of keeping up with an art form that has moved on. It reminds me of that Firesign Theatre album, How Can You Be in Two Places at Once When You're Not Anywhere at All?

Yesterday, a week after Cindy Williams, Melinda Dillon (the mom in Close Encounters of the Third Kind) died. I loved her in that, and also remembered a unforgettably sad scene in Absence of Malice, where she reluctantly--to protect her friend, Paul Newman--told Sally Field’s reporter that she had an abortion once. I wanted to post but hesitated. “Maybe I should start with a self-deprecating joke...‘Please promise me she never had a hit television show.’” I didn’t, but posted anyway, being--as I more and more try to be these days, often to little effect--very careful with my words.

A Little Bit Louder Now (2022)

The internet is not a good place to argue with people--did you know that? Bookmark this page so you don’t forget.

Spent the better part of two days arguing over something on a message board earlier this week. The argument was tangential to what was being discussed initially, a question posed by me after seeing the new David Bowie documentary: along with Bowie, who were the most chameleon-like pop stars ever?

The question was a little vague, though I tried to clarify with three other names that I thought fit what I was thinking about: Madonna, Dylan, and Neil Young. I mentioned a couple of other possibilities I was less sure about: Beyoncé and Taylor Swift. It was meant to be a combination of the way these people presented themselves to the world, and also--the two usually went hand-in-hand—stylistic changes in their music.

The thread puttered along for a few days--understandably; it’s hard to come up with anyone who fits the idea as well as Bowie--at which point someone suggested the Isley Brothers. As I wrote in an online inventory of my albums many years ago, I’m not the biggest Isley Brothers fan, but I do have five different compilations of their work, covering three distinct phases of their career (and in the running “mixworthy” section of said inventory, I included “Shout” and “Twist and Shout”--and probably should have included “This Old Heart of Mine” too). So, while I was aware of their stylistic changes musically, I said that I didn’t think they were famous enough to qualify; I hadn’t mentioned this yet, but I realized right then that a certain level of fame was always implied as to who might fit. Bowie, Madonna, Dylan, Neil Young, Beyoncé, Taylor Swift: they’re all, in my mind, very famous, and when they change musical direction or reemerge looking completely different than they did a year ago, people talk about that. They make news (or made, as the case may be; the first four are either dead or old and not very chameleon-like anymore).

Within half an hour, someone jumped in with an addendum (italicized) to my response: “I like the Isley Brothers fine, but they wouldn't rise to that level of fame among white people.” Somehow, an assessment of general fame--I used the term “pop audience,” which to me encompasses people who listen to popular music of all kinds; to me, it includes everybody--was turned into a racial issue. If we section off this part of the pop audience, it's being explained to me, the Isley Brothers are famous--and by not realizing that, I’m probably a blinkered white guy (or worse) who doesn’t know anything about the Isley Brothers. (The poster of this comment was white.)

Chiming in, another poster (also white) half went after the first poster for making the distinction between white and black listeners (the Isleys, he pointed out, had played a Pitchfork Festival, with billing proximate to Stereolab--his comment included an internet acronym that lost me, so I misunderstood his point; more on internet-speak later), and half went after me for suggesting that Neil Young and Lou Reed (another possibility I’d mentioned, although I dismissed him for settling into “regular-guy Lou” sometime around 1980) are more famous than the Isley Brothers. And at that point, that’s what the thread became about: are the Isley Brothers as famous as Neil Young and Lou Reed?

To me, the answer is obvious: no. I’m not saying the Isley Brothers aren’t famous, but (as I pointed out in another comment) fame is relative, and it can’t be measured one way (the first poster threw in a list of how many Top 40 hits they’d had, including--this seemed very important to those who disagreed with me--a #1 song of Beyoncé's they’d just collaborated on). I tried to analogize: yes, they’d had a lot of Top 40 hits, but so did Brenda Lee in her day: did that make her more famous than the Ronettes, Janis Joplin, or Jimi Hendrix, all of whom had far fewer? Hits and commercial success are a component of fame, but does that mean that whoever directs the next Marvel film will automatically be more famous than Jean-Luc Godard, whose films--all of them combined--were probably seen by fewer people than will see that next Marvel film on its opening weekend? (I’m just guessing there, but you get the point.) I turned the question back on the message board where all this was taking place, pointing out that while there are multiple threads on the board devoted to Neil Young and Lou Reed, with hundreds upon hundreds of posts, the Isley Brothers have eight threads totalling fewer than 200 posts (with seven of them combining for probably 50 posts). Only one response there: that discussion on this message board is not a good barometer of fame. (To me, how much people talk about someone is one of the best barometers of fame there is.) I also mentioned how often Neil Young and the Velvet Underground have been covere by other artists--I’ve got hundreds of covers on my hard-drive--and that I thought that mattered, too.

The last point was dismissed--confirmation bias--the first two weren’t really addressed. A couple of people (I think I was arguing with about eight at this point) made what I thought were good counter-arguments, and I said so: one, that I’d overlooked sampling (I assume that the Isley Brothers, especially their ‘70s work, have been sampled a lot), and two, that Hendrix got his start playing backup with the Isleys. The second poster I mentioned--the Stereolab/Pitchfork guy--chipped in with a couple of ridiculous posts: one, a caricature of the Velvet Underground that I think was supposed to be funny, either as cutting ridicule or in the spirit of “this is so ridiculous it’s funny,” but if anything reminded me of Greg Gutfeld, that cretin who’s all over Fox, and two, an equation of Neil Young and Lou Reed with Robyn Hitchcock in the fame department. Onward and downward.

Which brings me to internet jargon--I don’t think there’s anything I despise more these days. By jargon, I mean all internet acronyms, stylistic tics, ways of phrasing things, and the widespread assumption that everyone knows what you mean when you engage in this kind of silliness. A couple of examples:

A phrase turned into single-word sentences: Dumbest. Idea. Ever. There were all sorts of useful methods already around for emphasizing your words; I can’t see that this one has added anything.

The Facebook post that begins with “So”: “So I just wrote this thing,” or “So I just won the Nobel Prize for physics”--the “so,” I think, is to let you know that geez, this big thing I’m telling you about really isn’t that big a deal to me, but I’m telling you anyway, because I’m incapable of not telling you, because it’s a really, really, really big deal.”

And so on--there are many that drive me around the bend. I don’t get the appeal at all. It’s like you’ve been reading everything people are saying on the internet, and you suddenly notice that everybody’s saying this one thing, and you decide...what? “I want to use that; I want to sound exactly like everybody else.”

I bring all this up because, with the argument winding down, someone jumped on the thread--it always takes courage to join a pile-on--and, in a very theatrical display of incredulity, threw one of these phrases at me: “_________ (my display name on this message board)...I can’t.” Which is usually, I believe, rendered as “I can’t even.”

The point there is that my side of the argument--that Neil Young and Lou Reed are more famous than the Isley Brothers--is so wrong, so hopelessly beyond the pale, that this person can’t even find the words to express how egregiously wrong I am. And--nudge-nudge--race is again insinuated: the person wondered if I listened to much R&B, hip-hop, or funk.

Okay. I knew this person enough to respond in a FB message, and I did; no need to share that here. I wasn’t happy with the question.

The thread had basically (and understandably) scared off everyone by this point, including me, so after a few more posts, it’s been dormant for a couple of days, where it will hopefully remain forever. Not wanting to reopen the issue, I’ll post a couple of follow-up thoughts here.

1) Not sure why--it’s not like I consider his word gospel or anything, though I do trust him on the subject of the Isley Brothers more than some of the people I’d been arguing with--I thought I’d look up what Robert Christgau has written on them, by which I mean reviews of their albums in his Consumer Guide. As least in the online version, he’s reviewed 18 albums of theirs, including compilations and a box set; that would seem to indicate sufficient familiarity with their music, and, by extension, their relative place in the grand scheme of things. Sixteen of the albums get grades from C+ to a B+, one (the latest, a collaboration with Carlos Santana) gets the star treatment (which approximately translates as a B, I think), and the box set gets an A-: “an honorable job on a significant band whose catalog cries out for landscaping.” Great rating, words of praise. He also writes this, though, in the same entry: “But folks, this is only the Isley Brothers. They gave us ‘Twist and Shout’ and ‘It's Your Thing’ and, um, ‘That Lady,’ they hired Jimi Hendrix young and learned a few things, they formed their own label and held on like heroes. They have a great single disc in them. But who's up for canonization next? Frankie Beverly and Maze?”

I’d say that’s pretty much what I’d been saying all along, except Christgau’s sometimes harsher--“only the Isley Brothers.” Even if I’d still been posting in the thread, though, I don’t think I would have brought up Christgau. He’s a lightning rod on this message board, and any mention of him would have immediately been dismissed out of hand.

2) Something I just thought to check today (not that I’m still thinking about the whole episode--not me): how many books have been written about these three artists? With Neil Young and Lou Reed (as solo artists only, not including books on some famous bands they’ve been in), I found at least 10 each. Neil: Jimmy McDonough’s Shakey, Sam Inglis’s Harvest, Johnny Rogan’s Zero to Sixty, John Einarson’s (and others’) Don’t Be Denied, Kevin Chong’s Neil Young Nation, Daniel Durchholz and Gary Graff’s Long May You Run, Harvey Kubernik’s Heart of Gold, Sharry Wilson’s The Sugar Mountain Years, Nigel Williamson’s Stories Behind the Songs 1966-1992, Sylvie Simmons’ Reflections in a Broken Glass, The Rolling Stone Files (various), Carole Dufrechou’s Neil Young. That’s 12--the last one, the earliest, I used to own back in high school, but somehow I lost it along the way (still can’t remember when or how). Same with Lou Reed, give or take a book or two.

I can’t find a single book on the Isley Brothers. I have to believe that there was at least one written at some point, and that it went out of print (such books still tend to turn up on sites like AbeBooks--e.g., the Carole Dufrechou book), but I didn’t turn up anything. They do get indexed in Nelson George’s The Death of Rhythm and Blues seven times, which in fairness is only one fewer mention than Smokey Robinson. In my mind, Smokey Robinson is much more famous than the Isley Brothers--and on par with Neil Young and Lou Reed--so that’s another piece of evidence worth considering.

Anyway, is the number of books written about someone a meaningful measure of fame? Does that count for anything?

3) Another board-centric way to approach the question. This message board is often the site of artist polls: people send in ballots on their favourite songs, the results are compiled and counted down. I’ve run one poll myself--surprise, Neil Young--co-ran a Yo La Tengo poll with someone else, and looked after the vote tabulation for a Motown singles poll. (I’ve also run a few film polls.) To try to bring some semblance of order to the whole process, there’s a thread where people throw out ideas, and a running list of who’s next in line is maintained. Three threads, actually--the first got so long, a second and then a third thread were started.

As I say, there’s been a Neil Young poll. There’s been an all-encompassing Velvet Underground poll that combined the VU with solo work. There’s been a David Bowie poll, a Madonna poll, and a Dylan poll. Some other obvious ones: the Beatles, Prince, Led Zeppelin, the Beach Boys, an all-encompassing Jacksons poll that combined group and solo work, the Who. There’ve been over 100 of them the past decade, and if you were to look at the whole list, it’s not like everyone is that famous--far from it. There’ve been a number of polls where my first thought was “Really? You’re going to run a poll on them?”

There hasn’t been an Isley Brothers poll, though “Shout” did place #38 on a ‘50s poll from a few years ago. I don’t have my own ballot from that poll--it was run on a Google Form--so I’m wondering if I voted for it myself. (Probably not--much of my 50-song ballot was devoted to doo-wop.) No Isleys poll is not, in and of itself, especially significant: I could name a lot of important and famous artists where there’s never been a poll. The thing that caught my eye when I looked at the three housekeeping threads, though, is that--if the “find” command is to be trusted--not a single person has even suggested the Isley Brothers as a poll possibility. The three threads combine for around 5,500 posts. Not one mention. I’m sure, had I made this point, this also would have been brushed aside, but seeing as this is the very message board where this argument is taking place, doesn’t this at least suggest some kind of disconnect?

4) I said that the charge of confirmation bias towards me--that the mere fact that I’d been collecting covers of Neil Young and the Velvet Underground (Beatles, too) already ensured that I’d consider Neil Young and Lou Reed more famous--was valid. I’ll bring up another common bias, regularly brought up in all kinds of contexts when it comes to baseball: recency bias. This Beyoncé/Isley Brothers record on the charts right now came up a few times, almost like its success was a function of the Isleys' enduring fame rather than Beyoncé’s.

5) Is the latest version of Rolling Stone's Top 500 worth anything? I wouldn't mention it in the thread, no, although clearly this is not the same Top 500 as their 2004 or even 2010 list (the top three spots and six of the top ten are held down by black artists). On the 2021 list, the Isley Brothers placed one song, "Shout" at #268; Neil Young had three ("Heart of Gold" at #259, "After the Gold Rush" at #322, and "Powderfinger at #450), Lou Reed also three ("I'm Waiting for the Man" at #81, "Walk on the Wild Side" at #180, and "Sweet Jane" at #294). Again, to be fair, of those seven songs, the two most specious for me are "Heart of Gold" and "Walk on the Wild Side."

6) In my mind, the fame of the Isley Brothers has been exceeded by that of their two most famous songs. Play “Shout” for 1,000 random people--music fans, non-music fans, a mix--and my guess is that more people will identify it as “the Animal House song” than as an Isley Brothers song. And if you were to do the same with “Twist and Shout,” I’m pretty sure it would be identified as a Beatles song far more often than an Isley Brothers song. That’s not their fault, and such things can be infuriating, I know--I wince at the reality that certain cover versions have become more famous than the originals. (There’s one in particular that gets under my skin, but I’m drawing a blank right now--obviously I'm not talking about the Beatles’ great “Twist and Shout” cover.) It is a reality, though.

Not sure if anyone I’d been arguing with will ever see this. In any event, I’ll say it again: the Isley Brothers, who were elected to the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame in 1992 (Young and Reed are each in there twice--we can discount that, too), are not as famous as Neil Young or Lou Reed. To me, they’re not all that close to being as famous.

1.12 (2021)

Vlad and Tatis and Acuna are great stories this year, Wander Franco’s a great story, umpires patting down pitchers like they’re about to enter the gates of the Corleone compound is a great--or at least a strange--story, but the number-one story of the year is obviously Jacob deGrom. There’s what he might do, and also some of the puzzling questions that will arise if he just misses.

To start, ERA--not adjusted, not fielding-independent, just plain old Earned Run Average. Three months and 69 games into the season, deGrom’s ERA is 0.50. Depending upon how skeptically you view any pitching records that predate Babe Ruth, deGrom has the all-time ERA record within reach—Dutch Leonard’s 0.96 in 1904--and also Bob Gibson’s modern-day record of 1.12, set in the freakish Year of the Pitcher, 1968. Wait, though; sitting above Leonard on Baseball Reference’s leaders page is Tim Keefe, 0.86 in 1880, and also five players from the Negro Leagues (including Satchel Paige), statistics from which were, within a certain window, absorbed (if that’s the right word) into the official record book this past year.* If you include everything, deGrom is aiming for Eugene Bremer’s 0.71, established in 1937.

With so many variables in the earlier numbers, I think most fans and media are looking at Gibson as the guy to beat. Right now, according to a little graphic the MLB site includes on their front page every day, deGrom is over a run ahead of Gibson, who was at 1.52 through his first 12 starts. But, with Gibson throwing 305 innings in 1968 (and 106 in his first 12 starts), that’s kind of meaningless.

The focus is very much on deGrom’s ERA, but he’s also presently eclipsing a number of other pitching records, both old-school and sabermetric. I’ll again stick to post-war MLB records--especially with Adjusted ERA, there are many Negro League pitchers who bettered Bauer’s mark:

1. Hits-per-9-innings: Trevor Bauer, 2020, 5.05 (deGrom – 3.38)
2. K-per-9-innings: Shane Bieber, 2020, 14.20 (deGrom – 14.63)
3. K/BB ratio: Phil Hughes, 2014, 11.63 (deGrom – 11.70)
4. WHIP: Pedro Martinez, 2000, 0.737 (deGrom – 0.463)
5. Adjusted ERA: Trevor Bauer, 2020, 292 (deGrom – 774)
6. Fielding-independent pitching – Pedro Martinez, 1999, 1.40 (deGrom – 0.87)

I take those Trevor Bauer/Shane Bieber numbers with a huge grain of Hydroxychloroquine, by the way: Bauer threw 73 innings in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, Bieber 77.1. I assume you had to throw one inning per team game to qualify for leaderboards and records, but when you’re down to IP in the 70s, you may as well include some of the other-worldly numbers put up by Chapman and Kimbrel and other closers. Looking past those two guys, the post-war record for H/9 is Nolan Ryan in 1972 (5.26); K/9 is Gerrit Cole in 2019 (13.82); and Adjusted ERA is Pedro in 2000 (291). I’ve probably missed a couple of marks deGrom is chasing, esoteric stuff like Base-Out Runs Saved that only the people at Fangraphs understand.

If deGrom does break Gibson’s mark, one thing falls in place for sure, another almost for sure: he wins his third Cy Young award (unanimously) and, 10-15 years down the road, he goes into the HOF. The second, because of some complicating factors, is not a certainty, but precedent has established an inviolable rule-of-three when it comes to Cy Youngs and MVPs: provided you don’t have a PED cloud hanging over you (Clemens, Bonds, and A-Rod), and assuming Pujols, Trout, Kershaw, and Scherzer are HOF-bound, three of either guarantees induction. There are a number of players who won two and fell short.

But what happens if deGrom doesn’t break Gibson’s mark, or if he breaks it but doesn’t have enough IP to qualify for the ERA title (meaning he doesn’t actually break it)? How close does he have to come--in ERA if he qualifies but ends up higher than 1.12; in innings if he’s lower than 1.12 but short of 162 IP--to win his third Cy and, presumably, end up in the HOF?

Getting to 162 innings is not a given the way things stand. DeGrom is both fragile and cautious: he’s had, I think, four different physical issues this year that have led to him exiting games early and/or missing starts. Last week, against the Cubs, he pitched three perfect innings, struck out 8 of 9 batters, and pulled himself from the game--he was back in there five days later. He’s thrown 72 innings thus far, with the Mets about to play their 70th game. DeGrom will pitch their 71st; if he stays in rotation the rest of the way, he’d get 19 more starts and would have to average 4.73 innings per start. Which is nothing--it’s staying in rotation the rest of the way that provides the challenge. There’s not a huge margin of error there; if he misses one start, that jumps to 5 innings per start; if he misses two, 5.29. If he were to go on the DL for anything longer than two starts, his margin of error all but disappears--to date, he’s averaging exactly six innings per start.

Two scenarios:

1) He betters Gibson’s 1.12, but he only throws 150 innings. I’d still vote for him for the Cy, but I think many sportswriters will automatically drop him from their ballots (or at the very least only give him a nominal 4th- or 5th-place vote). How many, I don’t know, but with Gausman, Wheeler, and Woodruff (three guys about whom I know virtually nothing--you can maybe throw Scherzer in there, too) all having great seasons, that might be enough to cost him Cy #3. Or maybe, with those other guys splitting votes, he’d win anyway.

2) He gets his 162 innings, but he falls short of Gibson. Maybe he comes really, really close, ends up at 1.25 or something, or maybe he ends up more in the range of Dwight Gooden (1.53) or Greg Maddux (1.56), or maybe even he gets hammered in one start and ends up over 2.00. If he just barely clears 162 IP, then it’s a case of balancing that with his ERA; if the first is too low or the second too high, he’ll probably end up behind one or two of the aforementioned Cy contenders in WAR.

There is so much weirdness attached to deGrom, for both his career (his infamous lack of run support from the Mets, which combined with a late start--he broke in at 26--has him with 77 wins at the age of 33) and this season (he’s hitting .407, and has knocked in more runs, 6, than he’s allowed, 4), that it’s becoming harder and harder to know where he stands in relation to anything. Come to think of it, I don’t think I’ve ever heard him speak, either.

*Something I fully support, but the transition--feelings vs. facts--won’t be instantaneous; 0.71 is just not going to acquire the larger-than-lifeness that 1.12 has overnight.